Monday, November 20, 2017

Statistics.......................baseball..................betting..................amongst other things........I think that they thought that they could map out all the chess moves...........b/c while a big number............a player only has a finite number of them.........it is just that they are a large number.........when u consider all the possibilities down the line..............as in so many moves from now............

But I think they thought with a computer powerful enough and if they wrote the code well enough......from a statistical point of view...............that they could map out all the possibilities and make a perfect move..................where they would never be beaten.........esp. if u moved 1st..........u would always be a play ahead of your opponent.............in this book........the author mentions a bug in the code............in the 2nd meeting of Deep Blue and Garry K....................one which the computer scientists fixed...........between games.............the games were on different days...............it was a stop gap.....................that the computer would make a random move if it did not see a perfect winning move.............b/c in chess........u cannot pass your move...........u have to move.........so the stop gap..............was to make a random move so as it would not get stuck and not make a decision when it was Deep Blue's turn.................as a stop gap.......just in case the percentages saw no correct move..........b/c u HAVE to make a move..............but once they fixed that they thought they had made chess history b/c they had perfected chess..........in the last game in their 2nd meeting...........the computer made a move.............that Garry K.........resigned after only 17 moves or so..........unheard of from him.........

And it was a very strange move...........a sacrifice ............trading a pawn for a bishop...........a loss in material........but b/c of the positions of the pieces the computer saw an advantage, and one that if the computer didn't make a blunder that if the game were played out it would win......Garry K must have realized that........and resigned..............................

I think they figured out the code, or at least thought that they had..............................the percentages to make a perfect move.......................b/c the moves are limited...................a huge number..........when u consider the combined percentages.............down the line.......but one still finite................I think they poisoned him as well.....................they say he was visibly angry..............a furious person does not play as well.........


Nate Silver's 'The Signal and the Noise' - The Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/.../nate-silvers-the-signal-and-the-noise/
Sep 26, 2012 - In a short excerpt from Nate Silver's new book, a look at how a random computer glitch enabled Deep Blue to unnerve and defeat Garry ...


Rage Against The Machines | FiveThirtyEight

fivethirtyeight.com/features/rage-against-the-machines/
Oct 23, 2014 - This is an excerpted chapter from “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many ... Deep Blue did defeat Kasparov in the first game of a match in ...

The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some ...

https://www.amazon.com/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail-but/dp/0143125087
The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver's brilliant and elegant tour of the modern science-slash-art of forecasting, shows what happens when Big Data meets human nature. Baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake prediction, economics, and polling: In all of these areas, Silver finds ...

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